Derek McInnes has been growing in confidence about Hearts’ title prospects, and with good reason given where his side currently sit. However, one claim he made about their points tally deserves closer scrutiny, because the numbers tell a very different story.
Hearts sit top of the Scottish Premiership with 63 points, five clear of Celtic, and McInnes has suggested that what they have accumulated is roughly the kind of total that wins leagues. That assertion does not hold up.
Speaking to the Sunday Mail, McInnes pointed to the instability that has plagued both Rangers and Celtic this season, with managerial changes, boardroom upheaval and shifting personnel at key positions affecting both clubs despite their financial advantages. He argued that Hearts have benefited from genuine stability in the dugout and in the dressing room, and that this consistency has been a significant factor in their strong campaign. He was careful not to dwell too much on his rivals, saying Hearts simply need to focus on their own performance and trust that doing their jobs well will be enough.
The sentiment around stability is fair and well made. The problem is the specific claim about the points tally.
A look at what Celtic have accumulated at the same stage of the season over the past five years makes for uncomfortable reading for McInnes. After 33 games, Celtic had 81 points in 2024/25, 78 in 2023/24, 92 in 2022/23 and 82 in 2021/22. Even if Hearts were to take maximum points from their remaining four games before the split, the only season where their total would come close to matching Celtic’s benchmark is 2023/24. In every other recent campaign, Celtic were already well clear by this point. Going back further, the only time Hearts would be ahead of Celtic at the equivalent stage was during the COVID-affected season, when the Hoops had managed just 69 points.
McInnes would have been better served leaving that particular claim out of his comments. The stability argument is strong enough to stand on its own.